Fermi Paradox: Great Filters Galore

If the universe is so old and so huge, and if we are an average representative of what happens when a planet gets life, then where are all of the aliens? We should at least know that there are others out there, or so the "Paradox" insists. But maybe it's not quite so simple.

There are a few very good reasons for why we don't see a night sky filled with alien civilizations, old and new. There just might be  a couple of them out there, but for their own reasons they choose to leave us alone. And if we may ever succeed in climbing out into the heavens, we should do the very same.

Contact with other sapient species necessarily carries a considerable danger for both parties, and is preferably avoided when possible. Like two male grizzly bears, just waking up in the spring, we have little pleasant to say to each other, except "You go that way, and I'll go this way." And in all likelihood, this occurrence should be rare enough. The hope of encountering a galaxy-wide democratic confederacy of coexisting empires is mythological thinking at its worst. Don't bet on it. We would already see that by now.

The Fermi Paradox isn't really much of a paradox, when you see how hard it is to get to be an interstellar civilization. A Great Filter is a condition which is so difficult to meet that only a small fraction of a percent is likely to succeed. Perhaps only one in a million will get through all of the trials. And there are quite a few hurdles that must first be overcome, each group posing another lottery challenge before a civilization can even get into space, and still more once it has. An actual interstellar civilization is certainly quite an achievement.

1. Shared Time & Space (to be seen)
   - they must be within our own galaxy
   - who's up first? anyone else?
   - are they "currently" active?
   - do they have an expansive outlook?

2. Rare Earth
   - start with an hospitable star, K5 - G2
   - right size planet with water, metals & air
   - life needs magnetosphere protection
   - spherical moon to prevent catastrophe

3. Rare Intelligence
   - requires amenable anatomy with hands
   - discover skills for tool making & fire
   - learn language & share culture memory
   - start producing your own foods

4. Rare Technology
   - growing towns into a civilized society
   - a wide variety of specialized vocations
   - develop science & expect progress
   - achieve rockets, computers & radio

5. Rare Wisdom
   - saving the planet from deterioration
   - inhibiting warfare and self-destruction
   - cooperate on a political consensus
   - build colonies on multiple planets

6. Surviving Discovery
   - should we respect superior wisdom?
   - how do we repel a haunting madness?
   - what if its it's just a meaningless void?
   - it's a Do-It-Yourself paradise!

7. Eternal Vigilance
   - peace & justice is the solid foundation
   - walk softly to avoid stirring up trouble
   - carry a big stick to deter opportunists
   - non-interference is the best policy

8. Inevitable Decadence
   - tired of waiting for millions of years
   - boredom taints even eternal bliss
   - we are gods, we might think
   - entropy always wins

As you can see, we are still only half-way through the cycle, finishing number four, with some big challenges yet before us. And just imagine, if the previous civilization was 100 million years ago, we might not even find their ashes. Unless visible, detectable  interstellar civilizations arise more often than a million years apart, the chances of meeting one will be small, and we might regret it if we ever do. It would be highly unlikely that any aliens we might encounter would have a similar level of technological sophistication. And we had better hope and pray that they are good guys, wise and sympathetic. Only if we too have been out there for 100,000 years would we be able to meet them as equals. There is no way to guess how far or how quickly technology may progress. But it might just be a low-tech metaphor, or an archaic choice of words, to say that the Heavens may be home to a variety of Angels and Demons.

And patience is more than a critical virtue for an established interstellar people. We are apparently anxious to find someone else to talk to about problems, solutions, and the meaning of life in general. But failing that, we should hope to never become so certain of our perfection that we choose to create another sapient species. They may not be ready to recognize us as friends when they come out, if we interfere with their lives. And dropping hints to "help" them develop a guiding mythology, is definitely a kind of interference, and likely to cause conflicts among their factions.