The Landing Protocol

When we humans finally get free of our confinement to Earth and its nearby orbital space, of course we will be setting our sights on other obvious destinations. We naturally think that a place must be designated by some object, and the larger the better, since bigger objects are more easily seen. So, we have paid the most attention to traveling to our Moon, or to Mars. Yes, we also send probes to Venus and Jupiter, and the rest -- but notice that we have a bias: planets, big ones! Moons are nice, but we go there because of the planets. Indeed, even the "minor planets" got delayed interest, despite the fact that they were easy enough to reach. True, it took years to get to Pluto, but anywhere in the solar system is likely to take years to reach. The Dawn mission to Ceres and Vesta needed the added interest of a special ion propulsion engine, and a double rendezvous to make it a prioritized project.

But really, the moons and asteroids, along with the minor planets, are where the actual expansion of humanity into space is going to happen. Those are where we will learn how to gather resources and live in space. Humanity needs "earthlike" conditions in order to thrive -- gravity, day length, soils for growing plants, protection from radiation, etc. Even Mars is not going to fit the bill well enough. So, we will have to undertake massive construction projects to create benign habitats for our future colonization goals anywhere we want to go. Thus the question arises: why would we want to go back down into a gravity well after we have spent so much effort to get out of one? Yes, Mars may have all of the resources that we need to build a technological civilization in space, but so do the smaller bodies out there.

We still have a lot to learn about living in space. We have barely scratched the surface. And we know almost nothing about gathering and refining resources in situ beyond the Earth. While it is true that even the Moon's gravity is probably too low for people to live there permanently and raise families, we don't know if Mars is adequate either. Maybe Venus, ... okay, probably Venus, but trying to fix everything else that's wrong with it will delay our efforts there perhaps indefinitely. Mars may be worth a try, at least until we learn how resource extraction can work there. But raising those resources up to orbit will still require a major effort.

We can prove out the same technology working on the Moon. We can also build rotating habitats in Lunar orbit from lunar materials. And we can do this by remote teleoperation, with rotating maintenance schedules on the surface to supervise the mining operations. We can do all of this without having to go millions of miles and many months away from any assistance from Earth. And what we learn closer to home can still be applied on Mars, and out in the Asteroids and beyond.

In particular, learning to mine the Moon for metals, oxygen and fuel, so that we can build a livable outpost on the surface will allow prospectors to explore the craters and lava tubes for a wider variety of resources. Extended habitability will allow us to refine materials and build factories there. Then we can prefabricate a few types of basic materials and modules and launch them by magnetic railway, for use in constructing a rotating space station. This too, would become a permanent workplace with a rotating crew of hundreds. A second one could be used as a large shuttle to go to Mars, back and forth, to begin work there too. Eventually, we could take on the really huge projects of building O'Neill Cylinder colonies. At each step, we will learn something crucial to our future plans to move out into the solar system.

As soon as we reach the point where we build space stations, and have jobs that need skilled workers, either on the Moon or in orbit, the economics will become self-sustaining, as lots of people will want to go. But our space programs until then will have to be aggressively funded and supported by governments and large corporations. The cost may rival the military budget of a nascent superpower, but with the verbal and moral support of the citizens here on the ground. We will do what we can to help with funding, but we don't expect profit-minded investors to build this from scratch. The return on investment might be too slow. But lots of people would buy a home in space, if jobs were available too. At that point, migrating to Mars, or the asteroid belt, will be just another assignment. The frontier will be open to the new wagon trains.

So then, where will we go? To Mars, of course! But also to the Asteroids, big and small, and to the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, to Venus to live in the cloud-tops, and anywhere else we may choose.

Eventually, we will learn enough about living in closed ecosystems aboard our rotating habitats that we may decide to try an interstellar voyage. Hopefully, we may have the capability to fly at more than a few percent of the speed of light. A hundred years would be a really long trip, but we would already be accustomed to living in habitats our whole lives. And when we get there, we probably won't have the planetary bias that we are starting out with. We'll know that resources are better found in bite-sized chunks, and minor planets are big enough.

Plus, if we have already found life that doesn't originate on Earth, we may know to be wary of earth-like planets in their own habitable zones. Any truly alien life forms probably won't be compatible with our own biology. The chances of accidental cross-contamination are just too great, and the consequences likely fatal, including the risk of contagion. So any interstellar colonists would be wise to avoid medium-sized, warm and wet planets, and stick to the moons, minor planets, asteroids and comets. Staking a claim on a Mercury size planet, and a few moons is easy enough, and if you use them up building lots of habitat ships, you can move on. Nomadic lifestyles have been common in our early history, and there is nothing wrong with repeating that.

Which brings me at last to the Title given for this post. The Landing Protocol. If future colonists really want to try to build a new world on an "earth-like" planet, they had better hope that there is no previous life inhabiting it. First, if there is anything more advanced than microbes extant, it would be unethical and immoral to usurp their planet and prevent them from ever evolving intelligence and technology. Secondly, even the microbes would likely be inimical to terran life, which would be at a definite disadvantage from not having evolved there. Only a truly sterile planet would be a safe bet for colonizing. And it's hard to prove a negative. How do you know "there are no bugs" for certain?

So they are faced with a hard choice. To make landfall, or not. If you want to go down, are you willing to accept the equivalent of a life-long prison sentence? Your choice will be permanent. No one who goes down will ever come back. They will either succeed and live down there, or they will die there. Of course, they won't be isolated without any help. Supplies can be dropped, but it likely won't be trade in any real sense. Anything from the planet must be assumed to be contaminated, at least until the new world is fully certified to be completely SAFE. And who knows how long that might take?

It's a fool's gamble. You might get lucky, or you might die. Are you really so dissatisfied with life in your ship? No one is forcing you to go, unless of course, it's going to be a prison colony. And then ... NO. You are not coming back.

So we are not looking for earth-like planets. We want smaller worlds that are not likely  to be suitable for the origin of life. The only planets that are good for anything are gas giants, where we can refill our fuel tanks, and which usually have a retinue of small moons and irregular rocks. There we can park our ships in orbit, swap people between ships for the sake of genetic diversity, and replenish our feedstocks with all the elements we may need to repair and upgrade the ships. Then, we can ask, "do we stay awhile, or go forward to the next star down the line?" Nor do we all have to agree on the same choice. We will be free.