Why does science always have to "debunk" the idea that we are special? Why can't they accept the possibility that God (gods) chose to uplift an ape who could learn to stand erect to use its hands? We may soon be able to engineer our own genes to remove illness causing defects, and maybe even some day to improve ourselves. So why not imagine that a fantastically superior species might wish for company in a lonely universe?
Every few hundred thousand years or so, our Benefactor could tweak our ancestors' genes to make us a bit more like what they were trying to evolve us into ... and let the new form adapt again to its environment. Making us to evolve into the "divine" image: upright, handy & smart ... just like them. They might even have been working on several lineages at the same time, to see what worked best. Not every change of form seems to have been something likely to change by itself.
Until finally they achieved enough that we began to evolve ourselves by developing technology. Technology promoted brains, by demanding adaptability and improving the availability of food. And then further, we began to domesticate ourselves, by gathering into larger groups, and to choose smarter people to have more descendants.
It doesn't have to have been merely luck and random mutations, "proving" that we are just like any other beast. Indeed, it seems that, unlike other species, several very different varieties of humans could interbreed (Cromagnon, Neanderthal, and Denisovan) and have fertile offspring. It probably produced a better hybrid that could adapt to their environment, and it might have improved the way our minds work. We really could have been the subjects chosen to arise to become ever more "godlike" via directed evolution, and then later inspired to imagine how God(s?) must have made us special.
This doesn't have to be a "science fiction" reference to aliens from outer space. It could be a recognition that our religions are not merely myths. Maybe our "divine" Benefactors have learned to transcend physical existence and become wholly spiritual, so it's the same thing, either way.
Here is a rough sketch of how we may have "evolved" from the forest apes of seven or eight million years ago:
1. Orrorin Tugenensis
- ~6 million years ago
- femur adapts to habitual walking
- lives in checkered forest habitat
- forages on the ground, sleeps above
2. Ardipithecus Ramidus
- ~4.5 million years ago
- pelvis & hips adapted to upright gait
- feet still capable of skillful climbing
- forests competing with grasslands
3. Australopithecus Afarensis
- ~3.2 million years ago
- feet adapted to continual walking
- spine has moved under the skull
- savanna has replaced forests
- makes crude temporary stone tools
4. Homo Habilis
- ~2.3 million years ago
- hands become more articulate
- makes more shaped stone tools
- carries a few permanent tools
- begins to modify environment
5. Homo Erectus
- ~1.9 million years ago
- shorter arms & longer legs
- makes typical stone hand axe
- discovers the use of fire
- migrates out of Africa
6. Homo Heidelbergensis
- ~660 thousand years ago
- can make functional clothing
- creates a variety of tool types
- moves into Europe
7. Homo Neanderthalensis & Denisova
- ~250 to 200 thousand years ago
- can build temporary shelters
- making use-specific tool kits
- develops concepts of spirit & afterlife
- adapted to cold northern climates (N)
- migrating eastward with climate (D)
8. Homo Sapiens
- ~150 thousand years ago
- gathering into larger tribal groups
- develops flexibility of articulate speech
- begins to domesticate himself
9. Homo Sapiens sapiens
- ~100 thousand years ago
- thoroughly modern human beings
- domesticates local plants & animals
- guides lifestyle by spiritual principles
- learns to build permanent settlements
- reshapes the world with technology
Next:
10. Homo Sapiens Celestius
* genetically engineered
- removed illness-causing traits
- enhanced desirable traits
- recoded genes for longevity
- selected for minimal aggression
* adapting to adverse conditions
- totally dependent on technology
- micro-gravity in space
- non-optimal planets/moons
- blended with non-human traits (?)
* enabled with technology
- cybernetic neurological networks
` programmed for morality
- prosthetic enhancements
* artificially manipulated procreation
- in vitro selective construction
- duplication by cloning
` alternative gender twins
` identical banked for stem cells
- implantation in chosen host(s)
- raised by the community
Now, I have to insert a disclaimer. This is not a declaration of what I actually believe. I stand firmly on the grounds of agnostic uncertainty, choosing to believe in God and at the same time in the scientific attempt to investigate reality by examining the facts on the ground. Generally, I think that the two must accept a harmony, and avoid the close-minded refusal to listen to any different points of view.
Remember that "directed evolution" is still evolution, which actually isn't random anyway, but is really "stochastic" as being aimed by the local environment to adapt for survival there. No specific mechanism for "direction" is to be implied, except that it must remain non-obvious, so as not to reveal too soon that there might have been some interference. Apparently, the power of faith is a desirable attribute that we need to cultivate, whether God exists or not.
Monday, December 30, 2019
Friday, December 27, 2019
Dunbar's Number: 132 to 165 People
Dunbar's number was first suggested by an English anthropologist, Robin Dunbar, in the 1990's, in a study correlating brain size with the size of social groups in primates. It is a supposed likely cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relations. These are relationships in which the individual knows who each person is, and what their role is in society, and is somewhat familiar with their behavior in the group. It refers to how easily each person relates to every other person, and how well they are known by their associates. Dunbar tries to count the number of people whom one would include as being familiar enough to approach in a public space, as known "from back home" perhaps, or at least more comfortably than those whom one simply remembers having met on a few occasions.
Indeed, the human mind may be wired for several concentric circles of familiarity and inclusion:
A. You may have 5 or 6 close friends, with whom you prefer to share regular time and activities.
B. You probably have up to 15 to 18 friends from whom you would readily accept an invitation to a party.
C. You may have about 3 times that many with whom you regularly interact on a daily to weekly basis, some 44 to 55 habituated and friendly acquaintances.
D. There may be about 3 times that many whom you recognize as being "one of us" and consider as part of "your village circle" and essentially not strangers. This circle is approximately 132 to 165 people. That is Dunbar's number.
E. And likely, there are about 3 times that many whom you would recognize and have some idea of where and when you last saw them, roughly 400 to 500 people. This is the equivalent of meeting some members of another village while on a trading trip, perhaps identified as peaceful by a sign of shared affiliation or trust.
F. The greater tribe may share a similar style and culture, but be recognized only in a political sense as "allies" and "not our enemies."
Lacking any shared marks of culture, or purposely displaying some contrary signs, persons who don't conform will be viewed as "outsiders" and regarded with antipathy and suspicion. These people are not given any benefits of cooperation, and are not expected to share "our values," because they are not trying to assimilate. Indeed, it would not surprise us to learn that they are enemies. They may even be segregated into their own smaller enclaves, or feel exclusive in other ways, often by their own choice. And they may not be welcomed by the larger society because of their desire to be different.
This is a result of our having evolved in a tribal setting. For hundreds of thousands of years, we lived in semi-nomadic groups, following the seasons as hunter-gatherers. The natural abundance of the ecosystems we lived in, and their carrying capacity, thus dictated the size of the groups of which we were a part. Even when we began to live in settled towns, our villages didn't soon grow much bigger. Only the cities that grew up around markets or governments had much reason for populations of many hundreds, depending on the regions they served.
It is only in recent centuries, since the end of the "Dark Ages," that we began regularly living in towns with populations in the thousands. And the local villages still kept their original proportions, with a few big market towns for economic interchange. A city of more than 10,000 was really thought of as a big place, probably the largest within 50 miles.
Later, some national capitals might even have exceeded 100,000 people. But it wasn't until the colonial period that London had a million people. These developments are too recent to have had much effect on the evolution of the human brain, and our modern educational methods are still struggling to adapt.
Indeed, the human mind may be wired for several concentric circles of familiarity and inclusion:
A. You may have 5 or 6 close friends, with whom you prefer to share regular time and activities.
B. You probably have up to 15 to 18 friends from whom you would readily accept an invitation to a party.
C. You may have about 3 times that many with whom you regularly interact on a daily to weekly basis, some 44 to 55 habituated and friendly acquaintances.
D. There may be about 3 times that many whom you recognize as being "one of us" and consider as part of "your village circle" and essentially not strangers. This circle is approximately 132 to 165 people. That is Dunbar's number.
E. And likely, there are about 3 times that many whom you would recognize and have some idea of where and when you last saw them, roughly 400 to 500 people. This is the equivalent of meeting some members of another village while on a trading trip, perhaps identified as peaceful by a sign of shared affiliation or trust.
F. The greater tribe may share a similar style and culture, but be recognized only in a political sense as "allies" and "not our enemies."
Lacking any shared marks of culture, or purposely displaying some contrary signs, persons who don't conform will be viewed as "outsiders" and regarded with antipathy and suspicion. These people are not given any benefits of cooperation, and are not expected to share "our values," because they are not trying to assimilate. Indeed, it would not surprise us to learn that they are enemies. They may even be segregated into their own smaller enclaves, or feel exclusive in other ways, often by their own choice. And they may not be welcomed by the larger society because of their desire to be different.
This is a result of our having evolved in a tribal setting. For hundreds of thousands of years, we lived in semi-nomadic groups, following the seasons as hunter-gatherers. The natural abundance of the ecosystems we lived in, and their carrying capacity, thus dictated the size of the groups of which we were a part. Even when we began to live in settled towns, our villages didn't soon grow much bigger. Only the cities that grew up around markets or governments had much reason for populations of many hundreds, depending on the regions they served.
It is only in recent centuries, since the end of the "Dark Ages," that we began regularly living in towns with populations in the thousands. And the local villages still kept their original proportions, with a few big market towns for economic interchange. A city of more than 10,000 was really thought of as a big place, probably the largest within 50 miles.
Later, some national capitals might even have exceeded 100,000 people. But it wasn't until the colonial period that London had a million people. These developments are too recent to have had much effect on the evolution of the human brain, and our modern educational methods are still struggling to adapt.
Thursday, December 5, 2019
Fermi Paradox: Great Filters Galore
If the universe is so old and so huge, and if we are an average representative of what happens when a planet gets life, then where are all of the aliens? We should at least know that there are others out there, or so the "Paradox" insists. But maybe it's not quite so simple.
There are a few very good reasons for why we don't see a night sky filled with alien civilizations, old and new. There just might be a couple of them out there, but for their own reasons they choose to leave us alone. And if we may ever succeed in climbing out into the heavens, we should do the very same.
Contact with other sapient species necessarily carries a considerable danger for both parties, and is preferably avoided when possible. Like two male grizzly bears, just waking up in the spring, we have little pleasant to say to each other, except "You go that way, and I'll go this way." And in all likelihood, this occurrence should be rare enough. The hope of encountering a galaxy-wide democratic confederacy of coexisting empires is mythological thinking at its worst. Don't bet on it. We would already see that by now.
The Fermi Paradox isn't really much of a paradox, when you see how hard it is to get to be an interstellar civilization. A Great Filter is a condition which is so difficult to meet that only a small fraction of a percent is likely to succeed. Perhaps only one in a million will get through all of the trials. And there are quite a few hurdles that must first be overcome, each group posing another lottery challenge before a civilization can even get into space, and still more once it has. An actual interstellar civilization is certainly quite an achievement.
1. Shared Time & Space (to be seen)
- they must be within our own galaxy
- who's up first? anyone else?
- are they "currently" active?
- do they have an expansive outlook?
2. Rare Earth
- start with an hospitable star, K5 - G2
- right size planet with water, metals & air
- life needs magnetosphere protection
- spherical moon to prevent catastrophe
3. Rare Intelligence
- requires amenable anatomy with hands
- discover skills for tool making & fire
- learn language & share culture memory
- start producing your own foods
4. Rare Technology
- growing towns into a civilized society
- a wide variety of specialized vocations
- develop science & expect progress
- achieve rockets, computers & radio
5. Rare Wisdom
- saving the planet from deterioration
- inhibiting warfare and self-destruction
- cooperate on a political consensus
- build colonies on multiple planets
6. Surviving Discovery
- should we respect superior wisdom?
- how do we repel a haunting madness?
- what if its it's just a meaningless void?
- it's a Do-It-Yourself paradise!
7. Eternal Vigilance
- peace & justice is the solid foundation
- walk softly to avoid stirring up trouble
- carry a big stick to deter opportunists
- non-interference is the best policy
8. Inevitable Decadence
- tired of waiting for millions of years
- boredom taints even eternal bliss
- we are gods, we might think
- entropy always wins
As you can see, we are still only half-way through the cycle, finishing number four, with some big challenges yet before us. And just imagine, if the previous civilization was 100 million years ago, we might not even find their ashes. Unless visible, detectable interstellar civilizations arise more often than a million years apart, the chances of meeting one will be small, and we might regret it if we ever do. It would be highly unlikely that any aliens we might encounter would have a similar level of technological sophistication. And we had better hope and pray that they are good guys, wise and sympathetic. Only if we too have been out there for 100,000 years would we be able to meet them as equals. There is no way to guess how far or how quickly technology may progress. But it might just be a low-tech metaphor, or an archaic choice of words, to say that the Heavens may be home to a variety of Angels and Demons.
And patience is more than a critical virtue for an established interstellar people. We are apparently anxious to find someone else to talk to about problems, solutions, and the meaning of life in general. But failing that, we should hope to never become so certain of our perfection that we choose to create another sapient species. They may not be ready to recognize us as friends when they come out, if we interfere with their lives. And dropping hints to "help" them develop a guiding mythology, is definitely a kind of interference, and likely to cause conflicts among their factions.
There are a few very good reasons for why we don't see a night sky filled with alien civilizations, old and new. There just might be a couple of them out there, but for their own reasons they choose to leave us alone. And if we may ever succeed in climbing out into the heavens, we should do the very same.
Contact with other sapient species necessarily carries a considerable danger for both parties, and is preferably avoided when possible. Like two male grizzly bears, just waking up in the spring, we have little pleasant to say to each other, except "You go that way, and I'll go this way." And in all likelihood, this occurrence should be rare enough. The hope of encountering a galaxy-wide democratic confederacy of coexisting empires is mythological thinking at its worst. Don't bet on it. We would already see that by now.
The Fermi Paradox isn't really much of a paradox, when you see how hard it is to get to be an interstellar civilization. A Great Filter is a condition which is so difficult to meet that only a small fraction of a percent is likely to succeed. Perhaps only one in a million will get through all of the trials. And there are quite a few hurdles that must first be overcome, each group posing another lottery challenge before a civilization can even get into space, and still more once it has. An actual interstellar civilization is certainly quite an achievement.
1. Shared Time & Space (to be seen)
- they must be within our own galaxy
- who's up first? anyone else?
- are they "currently" active?
- do they have an expansive outlook?
2. Rare Earth
- start with an hospitable star, K5 - G2
- right size planet with water, metals & air
- life needs magnetosphere protection
- spherical moon to prevent catastrophe
3. Rare Intelligence
- requires amenable anatomy with hands
- discover skills for tool making & fire
- learn language & share culture memory
- start producing your own foods
4. Rare Technology
- growing towns into a civilized society
- a wide variety of specialized vocations
- develop science & expect progress
- achieve rockets, computers & radio
5. Rare Wisdom
- saving the planet from deterioration
- inhibiting warfare and self-destruction
- cooperate on a political consensus
- build colonies on multiple planets
6. Surviving Discovery
- should we respect superior wisdom?
- how do we repel a haunting madness?
- what if its it's just a meaningless void?
- it's a Do-It-Yourself paradise!
7. Eternal Vigilance
- peace & justice is the solid foundation
- walk softly to avoid stirring up trouble
- carry a big stick to deter opportunists
- non-interference is the best policy
8. Inevitable Decadence
- tired of waiting for millions of years
- boredom taints even eternal bliss
- we are gods, we might think
- entropy always wins
As you can see, we are still only half-way through the cycle, finishing number four, with some big challenges yet before us. And just imagine, if the previous civilization was 100 million years ago, we might not even find their ashes. Unless visible, detectable interstellar civilizations arise more often than a million years apart, the chances of meeting one will be small, and we might regret it if we ever do. It would be highly unlikely that any aliens we might encounter would have a similar level of technological sophistication. And we had better hope and pray that they are good guys, wise and sympathetic. Only if we too have been out there for 100,000 years would we be able to meet them as equals. There is no way to guess how far or how quickly technology may progress. But it might just be a low-tech metaphor, or an archaic choice of words, to say that the Heavens may be home to a variety of Angels and Demons.
And patience is more than a critical virtue for an established interstellar people. We are apparently anxious to find someone else to talk to about problems, solutions, and the meaning of life in general. But failing that, we should hope to never become so certain of our perfection that we choose to create another sapient species. They may not be ready to recognize us as friends when they come out, if we interfere with their lives. And dropping hints to "help" them develop a guiding mythology, is definitely a kind of interference, and likely to cause conflicts among their factions.
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Economic Bases of a Lunar Colony
Start with the most basic and necessary needs, scouring the elements from the land. Build up a basic infrastructure, then add items of popular interest, increase the comforts of home, and finally allow a few somewhat riskier endeavors that can't be done on Earth. While the earlier steps are more micromanaged, later ones are given less and less detail, as they are left for future generations to design and build for themselves.
Phase One "Landing on the Beach"
1. Research & Development:
- establish power sources & storage:
nuclear fission and solar (photovoltaic or concentrated reflection) plus banks of lithium or vitreous batteries to maintain power through the long nights.
- resource gathering and refining:
making the oxygen, aluminum, glass and other materials needed to build the basic habitats and living spaces
- life support infrastructure:
water supplies, ventilation systems, heating and cooling, lighting, disposal & recycling of wastes, radiation shielding, gravity wheels?
- developing industrial production:
standardized modular construction items, replacement parts for machines & vehicles, tool & die facilities, assembly lines, wiring & electronics, plumbing, air lock fittings
- food production facilities:
insulated greenhouses, hydroponic and aeroponic media racks, solar replacement lighting, fishery pools, fruits & nuts, edible insects to consume excess vegetative production
- mundane crafts production:
personal space suits, clothing & shoes, tablet-size computers, oxygen tanks, regolith filters, furniture, art, souvenirs
Phase Two "Expanding the Frontier"
2. Tourism and Entertainment:
- history tours of Apollo sites, Earth watching, trekking & mountain climbing, space suit survival certification, spiritual retreats, celebrity tours & gambling
3. Astronomy:
- far side radio telescopes, mega-array optical mirrors, dark sky surveys, Moon-in-depth studies, resource mapping, lava tube exploring
4. Magnetic levitation railways:
- launch to orbit facilities, transportation to other settlements, military applications, asteroid collision defense?
5. Meteorite prospecting:
- asteroid study, bombardment effects, resource claims & recovery, mining for metals
6. Medical solutions:
- zero gee recovery, cardiac stress reduction, experimental techniques, nanotech microsurgery, pharmaceutical research, mineral dust infiltration reduction & tissue repair
7. Isolated research projects:
NERVA spacecraft design, testing & construction, ultrahigh energy lasers, near lightspeed physics, gravity wave mapping, dark matter experiments
8. Resupply for outbound missions:
fuel & oxygen, recycling wastes, minor repairs & spares, food & water, launch pads & gantry
Phase Three "Manifest Destiny"
- Domes for new towns
- Tunnels and caves
- Web network of train lines
- Immigration influx
- Build your own spaceships
- Trade relations between destinations
- Illuminating our 8th continent
- Building orbital infrastructure
- Developing practical Space Law
- Taming the near frontier
But there is a big problem standing in the way of our colonizing the Moon. There is very little carbon available to be utilized by the processes of life. Any carbon we will need for food production will have to be imported, probably from Earth, and the cost of launching it is going to be a major factor. Imagine launching a hundred tons of dried anchovies to the Moon to be used for fertilizer.
We may be importing our food directly from Earth for quite a while, at least until our own waste products amount to enough to recycle for use. And still, any expansion of food production will require even more carbon imports. Recycling is going to be BIG on the moon. In fact, we may also be very careful to recycle our nitrogen and phosphorus as well, as the other primary ingredients of fertilizer. And there may also be a few other elements in short supply.
Food production is going to be our major bottleneck for our efforts to make the Moon our "eighth continent" as it has so often been called. Antarctica is quite homey by comparison. That is why there are so many advocates for going directly to Mars, and build up the Moon later. But it really is so much closer, that we should use it to learn all we can before going away from home for years at a time.
Phase One "Landing on the Beach"
1. Research & Development:
- establish power sources & storage:
nuclear fission and solar (photovoltaic or concentrated reflection) plus banks of lithium or vitreous batteries to maintain power through the long nights.
- resource gathering and refining:
making the oxygen, aluminum, glass and other materials needed to build the basic habitats and living spaces
- life support infrastructure:
water supplies, ventilation systems, heating and cooling, lighting, disposal & recycling of wastes, radiation shielding, gravity wheels?
- developing industrial production:
standardized modular construction items, replacement parts for machines & vehicles, tool & die facilities, assembly lines, wiring & electronics, plumbing, air lock fittings
- food production facilities:
insulated greenhouses, hydroponic and aeroponic media racks, solar replacement lighting, fishery pools, fruits & nuts, edible insects to consume excess vegetative production
- mundane crafts production:
personal space suits, clothing & shoes, tablet-size computers, oxygen tanks, regolith filters, furniture, art, souvenirs
Phase Two "Expanding the Frontier"
2. Tourism and Entertainment:
- history tours of Apollo sites, Earth watching, trekking & mountain climbing, space suit survival certification, spiritual retreats, celebrity tours & gambling
3. Astronomy:
- far side radio telescopes, mega-array optical mirrors, dark sky surveys, Moon-in-depth studies, resource mapping, lava tube exploring
4. Magnetic levitation railways:
- launch to orbit facilities, transportation to other settlements, military applications, asteroid collision defense?
5. Meteorite prospecting:
- asteroid study, bombardment effects, resource claims & recovery, mining for metals
6. Medical solutions:
- zero gee recovery, cardiac stress reduction, experimental techniques, nanotech microsurgery, pharmaceutical research, mineral dust infiltration reduction & tissue repair
7. Isolated research projects:
NERVA spacecraft design, testing & construction, ultrahigh energy lasers, near lightspeed physics, gravity wave mapping, dark matter experiments
8. Resupply for outbound missions:
fuel & oxygen, recycling wastes, minor repairs & spares, food & water, launch pads & gantry
Phase Three "Manifest Destiny"
- Domes for new towns
- Tunnels and caves
- Web network of train lines
- Immigration influx
- Build your own spaceships
- Trade relations between destinations
- Illuminating our 8th continent
- Building orbital infrastructure
- Developing practical Space Law
- Taming the near frontier
But there is a big problem standing in the way of our colonizing the Moon. There is very little carbon available to be utilized by the processes of life. Any carbon we will need for food production will have to be imported, probably from Earth, and the cost of launching it is going to be a major factor. Imagine launching a hundred tons of dried anchovies to the Moon to be used for fertilizer.
We may be importing our food directly from Earth for quite a while, at least until our own waste products amount to enough to recycle for use. And still, any expansion of food production will require even more carbon imports. Recycling is going to be BIG on the moon. In fact, we may also be very careful to recycle our nitrogen and phosphorus as well, as the other primary ingredients of fertilizer. And there may also be a few other elements in short supply.
Food production is going to be our major bottleneck for our efforts to make the Moon our "eighth continent" as it has so often been called. Antarctica is quite homey by comparison. That is why there are so many advocates for going directly to Mars, and build up the Moon later. But it really is so much closer, that we should use it to learn all we can before going away from home for years at a time.
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